Spatial electric load forecasting by H. Lee Willis

By H. Lee Willis

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12. This is perhaps the worst forecast the T&D planners could use to develop their plans. after the lead time to any of three different plans tailored to the three different patterns of load growth. Such planning is challenging, very much "advanced T&D Planning," but it can be done, and done well. Regardless, planners will never do it unless they have the forecasts and ability to study the situation One thing the planners must not do is form a single forecast map based on a probability-weighted sum of the various possible forecasts, an "expectation of load growth" map.

Consumers want the products it can help provide - a cool home in summer, hot water on demand, compressed air for manufacturing, cold beer in the 'fridge and football on color TV for the homeowner; computer control of the factory, heavy-duty compression of molds for manufacturing, and a host of other applications for commerce and industry.. These different goals and needs are called end-uses, and they span a wide range of applications. Some end-uses are unique to electric power (the author is not aware of any manufacturer of natural gas powered TVs, stereos, or computers).

For many other end-uses, electricity is only one of several possible energy sources (water heating, home heating, cooking, or clothes drying). , gasoline-powered refrigerators, and natural gas for interior lighting and for air conditioning. Each end-use is satisfied through the application of appliances or devices that convert electricity into the desired end product. For example, with lighting a wide range of illumination devices are used, including incandescent bulbs, fluorescent tubes, sodium vapor, high-pressure monochromatic gas-discharge tubes, and in special cases, lasers.

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