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A final violent effort is still necessary to crush England. In order to determine the manner of accomplishing this, we must weigh the factors which separate England from a complete collapse after the intensification of our air and submarine offensives will have produced their effect. In this battle, and after we have achieved the first stages of success, important German policies will be necessary for a final assault against the British Isles. The concentration of these forces – and particularly the enormous supply dumps – will require an antiaircraft defence far superior to our original estimates.

Most grateful for all your help, and above all for your surefooted judgment, which marches with our laboriously reached conclusions. 43 The Grand Alliance 44 2 The Widening War More Intimate Contacts with President Roosevelt — Arrival of Harry Hopkins in London — A Precious Link with the President — Our Journey to Scapa — Mr. ” — Politics and Strategy — Our Grim Alternatives — German Designs upon Rumania and Bulgaria — Soviet Concern — Ribbentrop’s Explanations — My Telegram of January 31 to President Inönü — Our Offer of Military Help to Turkey — Turkish Lack of Modern Equipment — Vital Need to Form a Balkan Front.

The Grand Alliance Germany is in fact preparing to repeat on the frontiers of Turkey the same manoeuvre as she accomplished on the frontiers of France in April and May, 1940. But in this case, instead of hesitating and overawed neutrals like Denmark, Holland, and Belgium, she has in Bulgaria a confederate and former ally who has beyond all doubt abandoned the will, and never had the power, to resist. All this, I repeat, may fall upon us in February or in March, and all will be open to the Germans even without moving any large masses of troops from the moment when the Bulgarian airfields have been fitted to receive the German Air Force and are occupied by the advanced aircraft personnel and ground staff.