Computing Risk for Oil Prospects:Principles and Programs by John W. Harbaugh

By John W. Harbaugh

The petroleum is enduring tough monetary occasions end result of the carrying on with depressed fee of crude oil at the global industry. This has triggered significant company restructuring and discount rates in employees through the undefined. simply because oil exploration needs to now be performed with fewer humans less than more challenging monetary constraints, it's crucial that the best and effective approaches be used. Computing chance for Oil clients describes how prospect hazard overview - predicting the distribution of economic earnings or losses which may outcome from the drilling of an exploration good - will be performed utilizing aim methods carried out on own pcs. The approaches contain analyses of ancient facts, interpretation of geological and geophysical facts, and fiscal calculations to yield a spectrum of the potential results of choices. All features of petroleum possibility evaluation are coated, from comparing nearby assets, via delineating someone prospect, to calculation of the monetary effects of other judgements and their attainable effects. the ground traces are given either by way of the possible volumes of oil that could be came upon and the anticipated financial returns. Statistical tactics are associated with computing device mapping and interpretation algorithms, which feed their effects without delay into workouts for monetary research. The courses within the incorporated library of machine courses are adapted to slot seamlessly jointly, and are designed for ease and straightforwardness of operation. the 2 diskettes provided are IBM suitable. complete info on loading is given in Appendix A - software program deploy. chance I diskette includes info documents and executables and hazard 2 diskette includes merely executables. The authors contend that the explorationist who develops a prospect might be inquisitive about each part of its research, together with threat and monetary tests.

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Extra info for Computing Risk for Oil Prospects:Principles and Programs

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A giant field is a rare event, and it is difficult to estimate intuitively the probability of its occurrence, although estimates are readily obtained by projecting a log-probability plot. Of course, a log-probability plot is a simple model or theoretical abstraction which may not actually represent the real world, so it must be used with caution. (We may sometimes find a cumulative field size distribution that is s-shaped, or has some other unexpected form. ) Uses of log-probability plots in oil exploration and hydrocarbon resource assessment have been described by Barouch and Kaufman (1976a, 6); Harbaugh, Doveton, and Davis (1977); Harbaugh and Ducastaing (1981); Kaufman (1963); and Kaufman, Balcer, and Kruyt (1975).

The other types of risk briefly discussed above will not be considered further, although all elements of risk are important in analyzing the total risk, and hence economic potential, attached to a prospect, an individual well, or a field. In the forecast of outcomes of plays and prospects, the broadest issue that affects risk is the regional endowment of hydrocarbons. The literature dealing with hydrocarbon endowment and exploration potential is extensive. Salient papers include those by Arps 15 Computing Risk for Oil Prospects — Chapter 1 and Roberts (1958); Attanasi, Drew, and Schuenemeyer (1980); Attanasi and Haynes (1984); Barton (1992); Beebe, Murdy, and Rasinier (1975); Bettini (1987); Bird (1986); Bloomfield and others (1980); Charpentier and Wesley (1986); Chung, Fabbri, and Sinding-Larsen (1988); Crovelli (1981, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1988); Dolton (1984); Dolton and others (1979, 1981); Drew, Scheunemeyer, and Root (1980); Drew and others (1987); Forman and Hinde (1985); Gehman, Baker, and White (1975); GrossUng (1975); Harff, Davis, and Olea (1992); Harris (1977); Haun (1975); Hubbert (1967, 1982); Ivanhoe (1986); Kaufman (1979, 1986); Kent and Herrington (1986); Mast and others (1980); Masters (1984, 1985, 1986); Masters, Klemme, and Coury (1982); Masters and others (1987); Masters and Peterson (1981); Masters, Root, and Dietzman (1983); Mayer and others (1979); McKelvey (1975); Meyer (1977); Miller (1979, 1981, 1982, 1986); Miller and others (1975); Momper (1979); Nederlof (1980); Nehring (1978); Pitcher (1976); Pratt (1937); Proctor, Lee, and Taylor (1982); Reznik (1982, 1986); Root and Attanasi (1980); Root and Drew (1979); Root and Schuenemeyer (1980); Ryan (1973a, 6); Schroeder (1986); Schuenemeyer and Drew (1977, 1983); Sheldon (1976); Uhler and Bradley (1970); Uri (1979a, 6); Varnes, Dolton, and Charpentier (1981); Weeks (1965); White and Gehman (1979); Wiorkowski (1981); Zapp (1962).

The other types of risk briefly discussed above will not be considered further, although all elements of risk are important in analyzing the total risk, and hence economic potential, attached to a prospect, an individual well, or a field. In the forecast of outcomes of plays and prospects, the broadest issue that affects risk is the regional endowment of hydrocarbons. The literature dealing with hydrocarbon endowment and exploration potential is extensive. Salient papers include those by Arps 15 Computing Risk for Oil Prospects — Chapter 1 and Roberts (1958); Attanasi, Drew, and Schuenemeyer (1980); Attanasi and Haynes (1984); Barton (1992); Beebe, Murdy, and Rasinier (1975); Bettini (1987); Bird (1986); Bloomfield and others (1980); Charpentier and Wesley (1986); Chung, Fabbri, and Sinding-Larsen (1988); Crovelli (1981, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1988); Dolton (1984); Dolton and others (1979, 1981); Drew, Scheunemeyer, and Root (1980); Drew and others (1987); Forman and Hinde (1985); Gehman, Baker, and White (1975); GrossUng (1975); Harff, Davis, and Olea (1992); Harris (1977); Haun (1975); Hubbert (1967, 1982); Ivanhoe (1986); Kaufman (1979, 1986); Kent and Herrington (1986); Mast and others (1980); Masters (1984, 1985, 1986); Masters, Klemme, and Coury (1982); Masters and others (1987); Masters and Peterson (1981); Masters, Root, and Dietzman (1983); Mayer and others (1979); McKelvey (1975); Meyer (1977); Miller (1979, 1981, 1982, 1986); Miller and others (1975); Momper (1979); Nederlof (1980); Nehring (1978); Pitcher (1976); Pratt (1937); Proctor, Lee, and Taylor (1982); Reznik (1982, 1986); Root and Attanasi (1980); Root and Drew (1979); Root and Schuenemeyer (1980); Ryan (1973a, 6); Schroeder (1986); Schuenemeyer and Drew (1977, 1983); Sheldon (1976); Uhler and Bradley (1970); Uri (1979a, 6); Varnes, Dolton, and Charpentier (1981); Weeks (1965); White and Gehman (1979); Wiorkowski (1981); Zapp (1962).

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