20 20 Foresight: Crafting Strategy in an Uncertain World by Hugh Courtney

By Hugh Courtney

In the course of a altering economic system, so much executives proceed to take advantage of a method toolkit designed for yesterday's extra strong industry. therefore, recommendations emerge that neither deal with the hazards nor reap the benefits of the possibilities that come up in hugely doubtful occasions. Now, McKinsey & corporation advisor Hugh Courtney argues that managers needs to flow past the outmoded "all-or-nothing" view of technique during which destiny occasions are both sure or doubtful. as an alternative, he indicates a simple-yet powerful-alternative: comprehend the extent of uncertainty you're dealing with in a given scenario, and you may make higher, extra proficient strategic choices.Based on a world assessment of the main technique difficulties confronted by means of over 100 prime businesses, Courtney unearths how executives can improve 20/20 foresight - a view of the longer term that separates what may be identified from what cannot. whereas executives with 20/20 foresight can hardly ever increase ideal forecasts of the long run, says Courtney, they could isolate the "residual uncertainty" they face and use this perception to create aggressive virtue in latest turbulent markets. Unveiling a innovative framework for diagnosing to which of the 4 degrees of residual uncertainty a particular technique selection corresponds, "20/20 Foresight" indicates how readers can leverage this data to respond to 3 key strategic questions: form or adapt to uncertainty? Make strategic commitments now or later? and stick with a targeted or assorted strategy?"20/20 Foresight" additionally exhibits strategists the right way to tailor each point of the decision-making technique - from formula to implementation - to the extent of uncertainty confronted, describes the strategic-planning methods readers can use to watch, replace, and revise ideas as useful in unstable markets, and incorporates a toolkit for picking out, constructing, and checking out new procedure thoughts - whole with guidance for utilizing the correct software to the best state of affairs on the correct time. A complete method of method improvement below all attainable degrees of uncertainty and throughout every kind of industries, this is often the basic advisor for making tricky strategic offerings in a altering international. Hugh Courtney is an affiliate relevant with the worldwide procedure perform at McKinsey & corporation in Washington D.C.

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20 20 Foresight: Crafting Strategy in an Uncertain World

In the middle of a altering financial system, so much executives proceed to take advantage of a technique toolkit designed for yesterday's extra good market. accordingly, innovations emerge that neither deal with the dangers nor make the most of the possibilities that come up in hugely doubtful occasions. Now, McKinsey & corporation advisor Hugh Courtney argues that managers needs to flow past the superseded "all-or-nothing" view of procedure during which destiny occasions are both sure or doubtful.

Extra resources for 20 20 Foresight: Crafting Strategy in an Uncertain World

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Simple cash flow forecasts 29 For example, John Smith’s projected overheads are going to be £50,000 per year. His ‘marginal cost’ per unit is made up as follows: Materials Piece-work wages Packaging, etc 200p 100p 10p Total 310p John can sell for £5 per item plus VAT. 90. John must sell 26,316 units (£50,000) every year just to cover his overheads and he must sell 31,579 (approximately 640 per week) if he wants to make a profit of £10,000 for himself. An analysis like this can, of itself, raise important questions that will have to be answered.

This too affects the cash flow. There are innumerable variations of both simple and sophisticated trade terms that can be offered. You will adopt the ones that suit your market best, but with the strong proviso that only the cash-rich can afford to give credit without offering discounts for prompt payment. Let us take some examples, assuming monthly sales of £1,000 per month. 4. 3, but 5 per cent discount given for immediate payment (half take the discount, the rest split as before) May sales paid June sales paid July sales paid August sales paid Totals May £ 475 June £ 0 475 July £ 333 0 475 August £ 167 333 0 475 475 475 808 975 You have now settled the cash sales line and the ‘receipts from debtors’.

For example, if your last quarter ended on 30 April, then in May you will pay VAT for the months of February, March and April. 175. This will give you your VAT ‘output’ tax. Next, you add up the VATable items of expenditure for the same three months and do the same calculation. This gives you your VAT ‘input’ tax. The difference will be the VAT you will pay in the fourth month. The following expenses are not VATable: ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ rent (in almost all cases – but check with care); rates; wages and National Insurance; insurance, subject to insurance tax; bus and train fares; bank interest and most charges; Simple cash flow forecasts ■ ■ ■ 27 postage; licence fees; books etc.

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